We now have MAJOR Hurricane Earl, What lies ahead?

8pm GMT: SPECIAL HURRICANE EARL VIDEO BY MARK VOGAN


7.30pm GMT UPDATE: We now have a category Hurricane Earl with maximum sustained winds upped to 120-mph and gusts to 150-mph, unfortunately I do see this storm not only threatening the Outer Banks of North Carolina but between Puerto Rico and Cape Lookout, NC growing into a monster cat 4 system with a small chance this even becomes a top-ranked cat 5 storm over the Gulf Stream.... no I don't think a cat 5 is going to hit the East Coast, ok!

Now, as the tracks push farther and father west with time and it worries the East Coast even more with Cape Cod, MA now under threat of a serious hit, whether it be a case of the eye passing just offshore, but still hammering the island with powerful hurricane conditions or, it's a worst case the eye crosses Cape Cod at Falmouth or Hyannis, MA.

Because the system has been fairly weak up until now, I think that's why this system never found a way out like Danielle and indeed Danielle is basically responsible for Earl's weaker state, now that Danielle's gone, Earl is off to the races and now that it's NORTH of Puerto Rico, it's intensifying!

THE COMPLEXITIES OF THE SURROUNDING PATTERN THAT WILL DICTATE WHERE EARL WILL GO THIS WEEK

 Now, the ridge that's to the north of Earl right now has been building westwards as Danielle departed and due to the influence of Earl below it and thus has been keeping Earl from turning north, had Danielle now been there in the first place, then Earl would have done the exact thing Danielle did, once intensified, it caught the trough dropped down and up it went into the graveyard of the cold North Atlantic...

Now that the trough is pushing southeastward off the US coast and the blowtorch ridge that's baking the Northeast is building and esentially pushing the trough out into the Western Atlantic NORTH of Earl, this won't grab Earl and the ridge due north of Earl will hold it for now. The issue is that as the ridge in the Eastern US then follows suit of the trough out ahead of it, it should join up with the ridge due north of Earl, therefore keeping it pointing towards the US coast... THE QUESTION IS AS IT WEAKENS AS IT JOINS WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE, DOES IT WEAKEN ENOUGH THAT EARL WILL TRACK AROUND IT, BUT STILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST????

That is the golden question and my gut feeling is that the East Coast has had too many lucky escapes and this ridge won't weaken enough, therefore the Outer Banks and possibly Cape Cod may find themselves getting a hit...

How strong a hit? Right now, likely a cat 3 in the Carolinas and a strong cat 2 on Cape Cod...

Stay tuned!

DANIELLE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE DAY'S OUT!

SEE MARK VOGAN'S TROPICAL DISCUSSION VIDEO ON THE FACEBOOK PAGE (SCROLL DOWN!

Image Courtesy of The Weather Channel

NEW: Note in the image above, this is the last section of the "loop" as you can see an eye forming!

Danielle now blowing sustained winds at 60mph and gusts beyond 70mph, this system appears to be reacting with a less sheared envirnoment and less dry air entrainment, meaning that it's becoming stronger and should become a hurricane (winds over 75mph) perhaps within the next 12 hours.

Danielle looks much healthier, more concentric as cloudtops rise and cool. As this system ramps up, tightens it's spin and grows more thunderstorms around it thanks to a drawing or pulling in of air at a faster rate from it's surrounding environment, winds will increase and pressures drop off.

It's over waters in the 80s and is tracking west, northwest. It is beginning to make me believe this system will remain a "fish storm" as it could well intensify quickly and if so, perhaps into a "major hurricane" in 48-hours, this will mean the storm grows much higher into the atmosphere, what's that mean? It will connect with the upper-level flow and the weakness in the ridge that's to the storm's north, therefore finding a way out and to the north. Had this storm been weaker and ultimately less "tall" within the atmosphere, it would be been more likely to not catch the trough that's pushing to the east away from North America and the Caribbean and therefore entered a much more dangerous and further west longitude that would have been more threatening to the US coastline.

Though it's overall envirnoment is good and waters are plenty warm for intensification over the central Tropical Atlantic, Danielle will have limited fuel for intensification as only once over the west-central Atlantic do waters be warmer (2-6 degrees higher than the central Atlantic) as well as deeper, therefore I don't see Danielle intensifying beyond a 120-mph cat 3 storm even if the shear drops off to near nothing around it. Had this storm been taking a course further west towards the Lesser Antilles, the Caribbean, Gulf and even off the US Eastern Seaboard would I be thinking tis storm could be aiming for cat 4 or even 5 strength, this is something to be considered for future storms that WILL not if form and get further west than what Danielle will. The US must be on guard as Danielle should be a wake-up call that this season has yet to begin proper.

As Joe Bastardi's puts it, the sounds of the band is beginning, now we're waiting for them to appear in full view.

LATEST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
Tropical Storm DANIELLE Forecast Discussion

LATEST FROM ACCUWEATHER
Tropical Storm Danielle Nearing Hurricane Strength...

Stay tuned for more regulat tropical updates as things become busier and more active across the Tropical Atlantic basin.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS BORN, HEADING FOR THE KEYS, LOUISIANA?

graphic courtesy of accuweather

Well a new Tropical Storm is now on the map and it appears heading in a NW direction which would take it over the southern Bahamas and then over the Florida Keys, then out into the Gulf of Mexico where it appears pretty much all forecast computer models are taking Bonnie towards the central Louisiana coast.

An upper low located west of Naples, Florida will be what holds Bonnie back from rapidly intensifying and as Bonnie journeys NW over the next 2-4 days, despite very warm waters in the 84-90 degree range, this upper low "should" move at roughly the same speed to the NW, keeping enough distance from this system to allow it to slowly intensify. However, the low is producing some SE shear overtop of the storm and will continue to do so, should Bonnie see an increase in shear from the upper low, then this may weaken the system somewhat.

Right now I feel Bonnie may be a strong "storm" when it reaches the Keys and may have a window of opertunity once into the Gulf to become a hurricane.

National Hurricane Center, TS Bonnie Info
AccuWeather Tropical Discussion

Stay tuned..

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

DO WE HAVE A TROPICAL STORM READY TO DEVELOP?

My appologies for not getting a post on here sooner. My thinking has been that since nothing has been happening, why post, right?

The purpose of creating this seperate blog from my main blog was that in the event of a major season, which by the way I still believe is very much on the cards, happens, well I will be prepared to provide you the very best of my knowledge as well as link you to the very best knowledge from the very best experts out there, keeping you up-to-date with all the latest happenings in the tropics in an organised way. By creating this individual blog but still part of "Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan" I shall provide you with the information both by myself personally and others in an organised, well presented and easy to read and follow way!

Anyway, my title for today is, as you can see.. Do we have a tropical storm (or hurricane) ready to develop?

So far it's been fairly quite.. That folks is a good thing and I'll tell you a few reasons why I think so... 1) It's simplky good to not have storms, full stop! 2) We don't want to see 2-4-6 named storms during the "early season", why? well that would really worry me about what may lie ahead later down the road. We typically don't see much activity during June and July, several factors are the reason.. some of which include, upper tamospheric dunamics are unfavorable and the atmosphere needs to adjust and all the "bad weather" takes time to retreat to it's typically, most northerly latitude, meaning the jet, it's low pressure systems etc etc still manage to creep far enough south and often creates an unfavorable environment, also waters in the central and eastern Atlantic are still too cool until late July.. So, typically we start to see activity ramp up.. (when the overall pattern is right) either in late July or more typically early August and a real ramping up of activity tends to hit by August 15 onwards when waters are about as warm as their going to get throughout the entire basin as well as the upper atmosphere is often more conducive.

HAVE WE BONNIE ON OUR HANDS?

Right now I am a little skeptical on whether we will see development over the next day or so... there are a few things making me hold back and looking back at history, we often "think", oh this thing's going to becomne a problem, even before it does anything, only to find it actually doesn't form at all...

The system needs to straighten itself out. The low level and mid-level circulations need to get over top of each other and then we'll see this bundle of thunderstorms begin looking more storm-like, until that happens I am holding back on any prediction as to whether it's heading for Key West or Melbourne and whether it's going to be a storm or a cat 2 hurricane....

I shall be back TOMORROW, right here on Hurricane 2010 and shall bring you the latest thoughts personally!

Stay tuned.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

COULD WE SEE BONNIE DEVELOP THIS WEEK?

DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES, I AM UNABLE TO UPLOAD A VIDEO TODAY, BUT SHALL ATTEMPT TO DO SO TOMORROW!

The latest from AccuWeather.com
Monitoring a Tropical Wave in the Western Caribbean
Jul 4, 2010 10:39 PM

There are no organized tropical weather systems within the Atlantic Basin at this time, although there are a few areas of interest.

An area of low pressure now centered about 125 miles south of the central Louisiana coast has become a little better organized. The small and compact system has shown some signs of obtaining a low level circulation over the last 12 hours, however, it is being affected by strong wind shear out of the north. This will inhibit any substantial organization through Monday. Though wind shear is forecasted to lessen a bit over the next 12-24 hours, this low will then move inland over the central Gulf Coast on Monday, ending any threat of tropical development.

Another more substantial area of interest is a broad area of vigorous thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea that is linked to an easterly tropical wave. This area of disturbed weather is being has shown some signs of organization over the last 6 hours and a low level circulation center may be forming. Observations from the northwest Caribbean have shown some decrease in surface pressures earlier this afternoon. Meanwhile, some buoy and ship observations have recorded tropical storm force winds over the last few hours. Atmospheric conditions appear favorable for development as the wave is located in an area of light wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures. The latest global computer forecast information suggests this wave will move across the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge into southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday with the potential for further organization during the middle of next week. Longer range computer models are taking this system through the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and potentially towards either South Texas or Northeast Mexico.

We will also continue to monitor a large area of disturbed weather east of Florida in the vicinity of a stationary frontal boundary. This area of thunderstorms is not forecasted to organize further as the stationary front remains in place over the area. Earlier in the week, some computer models showed the potential for organization, but that doesn't look to be the case now. Nonetheless, we will continue to monitor this area.

Last, a strong tropical wave is located just east of the Lesser Antilles. This wave is marked by clusters of moderate to strong convection. This system will bring the Leeward, northern Windward, and Virgin Islands gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall tonight through early Tuesday. Any development of this system will be slow during this time. However, conditions might become more favorable for development of this system once it reaches the central Caribbean later in the week.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Brian Edwards

Latest from the National Hurricane Center
Homepage: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 0300 UTC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN


ALONG 82W FROM CUBA JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO PANAMA.


SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N79W


TO 21N81W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-21N


BETWEEN 81W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE


WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 12N77W TO 15N82W WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY


INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. SYSTEM HAS


CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THERE ARE NO


SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL


CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A


TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS


THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 TO 13


KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL


CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...


LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE


CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN


CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

READ IN FULL HERE

HAS ALEX SET THE TONE OF 2010?

There has never been as much hype, anticipation, concern or warning about a hurricane season and certainly one must now wonder after we saw the Atlantic's first June hurricane since 1996 and the second strongest ever June Atlantic hurricane, has Alex provided tangable evidence that a bad year is brewing and folks living within the hurricane zone to be ready and prepare now?

The evidence is out there with abnormally warm seas across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico and the actual lowering of sea surface pressures over these very warm waters strongly suggest development chances are about as high as they'll ever be...

This blog which is part of Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan will supply you daily blog posts and links to all the best Hurricane information out there to keep you up to speed with what's happening as it's happening. I shall also provide you with personalised forecasts of impending storms, where I think their heading and how strong they'll become. I shall also, ALWAYS provide you with the official forecasts and information provided by the National Hurricane Center and also of AccuWeather and The Weather Channel.

Stay Tuned! 

IMAGE COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

Latest from AccuWeather
Tropical Rainstorm Alex Weakens, New Area of Interest off Florida Coast.
Jul 2, 2010 11:51 AM

Tropical Rainstorm Alex no longer has a defined circulation and is continuing to lose strength as it remains over central Mexico. Alex will produce 1 to 2 additional inches of rain across parts of northern and central Mexico through Friday with flash flooding and mudslides the main continuing threats.


A low pressure system associated with a frontal boundary sitting just off the panhandle of Florida will start to move westward during the next 24-48 hours. While the chance of development is extremely low, we will be closely monitoring as this feature begins to make its way into the Gulf of Mexico for any signs of tropical development.

With the exception of the feature off the Florida coast, the rest of the Atlantic remains quiet as no tropical development is expected over the next 48 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Donald Pillittere

CLICK HERE FOR THE ACCUWEATHER HURRICANE HOME

FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 02 2010


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL


AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS


OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST


FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED


ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER


OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.


BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY


THROUGH 1700 UTC...




...TROPICAL WAVES...


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N41W TO 5N43W MOVING W 15-20 KT.


BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS SEEN ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN VISIBLE


SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP


LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.


SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N


BETWEEN 39W-46W.


TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA ALONG 70W/71W S OF


11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE


LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ACROSS LAND. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED


STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 71W-73W.


...THE ITCZ...


ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N29W 9N36W 7N40W 10N46W


5N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM


5N-12N BETWEEN 15W-20W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN


25W-30W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 30W-33W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE


TROUGH IS ALONG 36W FROM 7N-12N. NO DEEP CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES


THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140


NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 46W-57W.




...DISCUSSION...


THE GULF OF MEXICO...


AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN UNITED STATES


SEABOARD HAS PUSHED INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A


FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE


W ATLC ACROSS NRN FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO A 1016 MB LOW


NEAR 29N85W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING W OF THE LOW TO


CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED


SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH


SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE


AXIS. STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO MOVING INLAND


ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTLINE. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED BY 20


KT SE WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF CONVERGING ALONG THE TEXAS


COASTLINE. 20 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE ALSO NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE


CENTER IN THE FAR NERN GULF. WHILE THIS FRONTAL LOW IS


BAROCLINIC IN NATURE...IT IS BEING MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF


TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO


DRIFT WWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL


RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED OVER SRN TEXAS NEAR 29N98W.


EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA


INFLUENCED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TROPICAL MOISTURE


ADVECTING TOWARD FLORIDA FROM THE SE.



THE CARIBBEAN SEA...


AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO


NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY. IT


CURRENTLY SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL


BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO NEAR ERN HONDURAS AT 16N83W.


THE COMBINATION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS


ENHANCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN


FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 76W-87W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO


ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 80W-84W...AND FROM


9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE


ALOFT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER


LEVEL RIDGING COVERING THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN. SURFACE


CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS PANAMA MAY ALSO


BE AIDING THE CONVECTION. ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA IS LIKELY TO


REMAIN AS A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA ALONG


70W/71W APPROACHES THE SW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...A FEW ISOLATED


SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 62W-68W WITH CLEAR WEATHER


PREVAILING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN.


THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC W OF


65W. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY A COLD FRONT THAT


ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N72W TO THE NRN FLORIDA COAST


SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN


SEABOARD INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH


EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN


SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR 26N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA AND


INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES HAS DRAWN


SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE WRN BASIN. ACROSS THE CENTRAL


ATLC...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN


ALONG 69W SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL


TROUGHS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING TO THE E NEAR 24N59W.


THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED


SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 62W-66W...AND FROM


25N-28N BETWEEN 56W-58W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES


ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N44W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR


WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLC. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS E OF 45W


ACCOMPANIED BY DUST S OF 25N EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE


IMAGERY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 16N45W


WITH A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY


ISLANDS TO NEAR 24N31W.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
WALTON


CLICK HERE FOR THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOMEPAGE